Friday Market

Predictions that a tellurian mercantile complement will tumble have been entrance during an accelerated gait lately.  Usually, many of  a many impassioned scenarios are from sources some-more meddlesome in gaining broadside rather than charity a offset analysis.

What’s surprising is that lately, many of these baleful predictions are entrance from some of a many routinely composed institutions in a universe such as a IMF and a World Bank.

Central bankers and a heads of universe financial organizations customarily pronounce in ambiguous and obfuscated terms designed to communicate confidence.  Either a financial powers are essay a new book of manners or we are all headed for some unimaginably horrific unfolding of financial and amicable chaos.

Here’s a tiny representation of a latest warnings from a composed and not so sedate.

IMF Chief Warns Europe Must Fuel Growth

BERLIN—The conduct of a International Monetary Fund warned that in serve to slicing yawning bill deficits Europe needs to do some-more to foster expansion and stop a predicament from swelling to a universe economy.

“It is about avoiding a 1930s moment, in that inaction, insularity, and firm beliefs mix to means a tumble in tellurian demand,” IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde pronounced before a German Council on Foreign Relations. “A moment, ultimately, heading to a downward turn that could overflow a whole world,” she said.

World Bank Projects Global Slowdown

“Developing countries need to weigh their vulnerabilities and prepared for serve shocks, while there is still time,” pronounced Justin Yifu Lin, a World Bank’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics.

Developing countries have reduction mercantile and financial space for calming measures than they did in 2008/09. As a result, their ability to respond might be compelled if general financial dries adult and tellurian conditions mellow sharply.

“An escalation of a predicament would gangling no-one. Developed- and developing-country expansion rates could tumble by as most or some-more than in 2008/09” pronounced Andrew Burns, Manager of Global Macroeconomics and lead author of a report. “The significance of strait formulation can't be stressed enough.”

Feliz Zulauf Sees More Trouble Ahead

Felix Zulauf: Yes, we trust a marginal nations have entered retrogression territory, and we trust it will get worse.

So, a conditions in Europe will get worse before it gets better. Moreover, a ECB, that has a roots in a German Bundesbank, will see to it that a ECB does not turn a lender of final review until they are positively forced into it by a market. For investors, this is really critical to understand. The new personality Mr. Draghi might leave Trichet’s regressive path, however, as given he is in energy he has talked one approach and acted in another way. This is ethereal as a credit of a ECB could be mislaid quickly.

Euro Breakup Would Cause Global Meltdown

In his debate during Davos, Soros will contend it is “now some-more expected than now” that Greece will rigourously default in 2012, Newsweek said. Soros though thinks a euro will survive, according to Newsweek.

The universe is confronting a duration of “evil,” Soros said, adding that he foresees Europe forward into disharmony and conflict, while rioting in a streets of a U.S. will lead to a curtailment of polite liberties and a tellurian mercantile complement presumably collapsing altogether, Newsweek reported.

All of a risks to tellurian wealth mentioned above have been good famous by investors for months now.  The day a IMF Chief warned of a tellurian basin worse than a 1930′s, a Dow Jones yawned and dump by 10 points.

Is there a vital undo from existence by U.S. investors or has a misfortune already been ignored after a high batch marketplace sell off final August?  Ever given an inside out day on Oct 3 of final year, a Dow Jones has powered higher, ignoring all a bad news and warnings of Armageddon.  Exactly what is going on?

Dow Jones – pleasantness yahoo.com

The answer is certain for both bonds and gold.  The “collective wisdom” of a markets saw a fortitude to a approaching hazard of a European debt predicament final fall, and that fortitude is famous as quantitative easing.  As formerly remarkable in this blog final December, Every Solution To a Euro Crisis Involve Printing Money, that is accurately what happened.  Both a European Central Bank (ECB) and a Federal Reserve mount prepared to imitation whatever apportion of income is compulsory to paper over a European and U.S. debt crisis.

The large initial proviso of a ECB’s Long Term Refinancing Operation modernized about $780 billion to Europe’s ruined banking system, shopping time and postponing a day of reckoning.  The ECB will reason a identical operation in February.

Long tenure this does small to solve Europe’s elemental problems, though is brief tenure bullish for bonds and intensely prolonged tenure bullish for bullion and silver.

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For the next week, my outlook is identical: bears have a slight advantage starting trading next week.

Keep in mind that the advantage bears have over bulls is extremely small. This is simply not a yahoo strong downtrend rating so let’s play the short side.

The Dow is in a weak downtrend. The Dow Jones attempted to retake the 50 day moving average on Friday, but was declined. Now that is just a Friday so we will need to wait and see if the 50 day moving average gets to be resistance next week.

The S&P 500 has a sidelines rating. This means that you ought to be in cash until a major group, either the bulls or the bears comes out, after which you can place your bets on that superior group. A sidelines rating isn’t bearish, nor is it bullish. It just means there is not any crystal-clear trend in either case.

The trend of all of the major indices (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000) sustains my thesis that bears have a small advantage entering trading next week.

The percentage of stocks trading above the 200 day moving average line on the NYSE is 76% which shows a bullish bias.

The very fact it isn’t is the market providing you with a very distinct message: gold is over-valued and there’s very little buyers seeking to buy it up here.

Silver continues in a strong uptrend.

The VIX calculates the amount of put buying on the futures market and so it is an critical leading indicator. Three weeks ago, I notified you to the point that the VIX was in a very weak uptrend. That uptrend rating was downgraded this week by a large pullback Thursday and Friday of last week. The pullback was so massive, it did technical harm to the vulnerable VIX very weak uptrend rating. The sidelines rating implies that the VIX has stopped providing us a trading signal: either bullish or bearish. We are going to have to put it off and pay attention to what happens next week.

About the fundamental analysis front, two critical economic indicators are being released in a few days that have the potential to move markets.

For more stock market news and investing ideas visit these links:

Excellent Penny Stocks For Dummies and Suckers Funny Video

On December 31st 2008, when gold was trading at USD0.00 I predicted it would go to over USD00.00. At the end of 2010, gold is now trading at USD20.00.

At the end of 2008, when silver was trading at just USD.00, I predicted it would go over USD.00. At the end of 2010, silver is now trading at USD.89.

Had you invested in gold you would have made a profit of 65% and with silver you would have made a profit of 153%.

Let me give you my predictions for gold and silver for 2011:

Gold will go to 00 and above and silver will go to at least .00. If you have not yet invested in gold and silver, it is still not too late. Precious metals are yet to become mainstream and therefore have a long way to go. We are at the beginning of a long-term bull market and there could be shortages of the physical metals in the future. 

I predicted that real estate would fall dramatically in the US and it is continuing to fall. I predict that over the next two years, property prices will drop overall another 20% the US and that the Chinese and Australian property bubbles will burst.  There will be small pockets of land and real estate that will hold their value even during the economic crisis that still lies ahead, but they are few and far between. In the main, if you are thinking of buying property, think again. You may want to rent for a while to keep your options open. Don’t get into something that looks like a “real bargain” only to find six months later that its price has dropped by another 20%.

Stock markets will be more volatile than ever. Between now and 2014, the Dow Jones could still fall to 90% off its all time high. If you are thinking of trading on the markets during 2011, make sure can afford to lose the money you are investing as there will be wild fluctuations in prices and people will become even more speculative than before and bubbles will form and burst in the twinkling of an eye.

The US dollar will continue to fall and we will see the start of currency wars, trade wars and cyber wars.

Unemployment in the US is at a 26 year high and unemployment among the young is at over 50% in Spain and Italy. This sets the scene for greater unrest and revolts against authorities and governments to come.

During 2011 we will see the schism between the haves and have nots widen with more austerity measures piled onto average person. We’ve already had civil unrest in Greece, Ireland and the latest in the UK with the students’ revolts and an open attack on Prince Charles and Camilla.

We will see more bailouts this coming year, governments taking on even more debt and more printing of colossal sums of money. We’ve already had QE 2 and I am fully expecting to see QE3 some time in the summer to fall of 2011. The same holds true for Europe where the situation is also worsening.

Governments worldwide will be imposing more and more taxes. Sales taxes, property taxes, income taxes etc., cash strapped states, councils and governments will be looking for ways to squeeze cash out of the everyday person. Make sure you keep your accounts and business dealings in order as I am seeing Inland Revenue departments chasing even small sums of money such as or 0.

There will be more groups who want to expose corruption in governments, banks and big business. It has started with Wikileaks and OpenLeaks, but the power of hackers around the world remains unknown and they may be able to bring down the likes of Paypal, Visa, Mastercard and Amazon. Take your privacy seriously and do whatever you can to put in place protections for your online security and financial security.

We will see more government leaders voted in and out of office quickly, just as we saw in 2010 with Kevin Rudd voted out by his own party within a year of taking office.  And in the US the November mid-term elections where there was a sweeping change in the balance of power.

There will be more natural disasters in places we least expect them. In 2010, Christchurch experienced a 7.3 earthquake and seismologists were not aware of a fault line in that area of New Zealand. There continue to be severe aftershocks that are still affecting the people and the buildings. Changing weather patterns will bring about freak weather conditions. In Australia there is severe flooding in areas that have had droughts for the last ten years.

I predict that we will see flooding so excessive in some places where small towns or even whole cities will go underwater. A proliferation of water borne diseases could ensue.

The majority will stick it out in the cities and towns and they will face civil unrest, uprisings, austerity measures and restrictions on their personal freedom. Others will withdraw, retreat to nature or live communally with others of like mind. They will be concerned with survival issues and will live independently and self-sufficiently, growing their own food and generating their own power. If you are unable to escape from where you are living, but feel vulnerable to the changes ahead, at least stock up with some basic food and water supplies, a first aid kit, torches and make copies of all your important documents. Think of it as taking out insurance – be prepared for the worst and hope for the best.

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Industrials – INDUSTRIES

By Robb M. Stewart

Published Oct 26, 2011

| Dow Jones Newswires